Why should the Eagles keep Gardner Minshew as the starting quarterback until the playoffs?
Even after the loss to the Dallas Cowboys, there’s no reason to bring Jalen Hurts back before the playoffs while he rests his sprained right shoulder.
And that’s even if it means wasting a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, and thus the first-round bye that comes with it, and those chances are long-shot (see below).
If anything, the Eagles should double Hurts’ layoff until the playoffs now that Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson is expected to miss the rest of the regular season with his abdominal injury. The NFL Network reported that Johnson suffered an abdominal tear.
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Eagles coach Nick Sirianni wouldn’t confirm it Monday, but he did say this about Johnson missing games: “It’s like he looks that way.”
Sirianni also didn’t rule out the possibility of Hurts returning for the Eagles’ game this Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.
“We know how much he wanted to play last week and how much he did to prepare his body,” he said. “With Jalen, it’s just that his body heals differently than yours and mine. He’ll do whatever he can to be healthy.”
“If he’s healthy, he’ll play.”
The Eagles can clinch the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win over the Saints or Giants on Jan. 8.
The website fivethirtyeight.com lists the Eagles’ chances of winning the division at 97% and the first seed at 95%, and that’s after a 40-34 loss to Dallas on Saturday.
So it all comes down to Hurts grades being “healthy.”
The best remedy for Hurts’ shoulder is rest and rehabilitation. If Hurts sits out the rest of the regular season, he will have five weeks bye if the Eagles clinch the No. 1 seed, and four weeks if they don’t.
Either way, Hurts will be as close to 100% as he can be when the Eagles need him most.
On the other hand, if the Eagles were fighting for a playoff spot, as the Giants are, then the fact that Hurts is “healthy” probably means he would play less than 100%. If that’s the case, there’s a good chance Hurts’ shoulder won’t be 100% in the playoffs, especially if he takes another big hit there.
The website fivethirtyeight.com doesn’t need to realize that the chances of that happening are higher without Johnson in the lineup.
Johnson is a Pro Bowl tackle who hasn’t allowed a sack in two years. He set an NFL record, according to Pro Football Focus, by making 928 passing plays without allowing any. That record fell Dec. 18 against the Bears, so Johnson is probably close to 1,000 straight snaps now.
Not that Johnson’s backups are terrible. They are not. The Eagles are 13-2 this season in large part because they have the best and deepest offensive line in the NFL.
Jack Driscoll has filled in admirably for Johnson in the past. Driscoll started one game at left tackle in place of Jordan Mailata earlier this season, and replaced Johnson in the second half against the Giants on Dec. 11 when Johnson left with the same abdominal injury.
The Eagles could also put Andre Dillard at left tackle and move Mailata to right tackle. They did this for one game last season when Johnson missed time dealing with a mental health illness.
“Everything would be on the table,” Sirianni said. “What we feel is the best. I love the fact that Jordan has some versatility, that he can (play right tackle). I love the fact that Andre and Jack are really good backups, and we have a lot of faith in them.” . to go out and do your job.
“Obviously we’re bummed out for Lane in the sense of missing any moment, but we’re also confident in the guys we have on the roster.”
Either way, the Eagles’ offensive line isn’t nearly as good without Johnson. That’s been the case since the Eagles selected Johnson in the first round in 2013. The Eagles are 72-44-1 (.620) when Johnson plays and just 12-20 (.375) when he doesn’t. make.
But there’s more than that.
Minshew has started 23 career games and showed he’s more than capable last Sunday against the Cowboys.
Dallas entered the game third in passing defense, allowing 192 yards per game. Minshew passed for 355 yards, and the Eagles never punted. Yes, Minshew threw two interceptions, but so did Hurts the week before against the Bears.
“I thought Gardner really handled himself with a lot of poise,” Sirianni said, adding that Minshew’s good plays “far outweighed the ones I was giving him corrections.”
Of course, Minshew isn’t going to take off and run when he’s in trouble like Hurts does. But the Eagles have a solid running game with Miles Sanders, who despite a costly fumble, had 65 yards on 21 carries and has 1,175 rushing yards this season.
“It’s pretty much the same, less running,” Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith said of the game plan with Minshew instead of Hurts. “Passing the ball and things like that, (Minshew) has a different touch. But overall, the passing game is still the same.”
Added wide receiver AJ Brown: “It was different because Jalen and Gardner are two different people. I think Gardner handled the situation perfectly.”
Sure, the Saints have a strong pass defense. They are second in the NFL, behind only the Eagles, allowing 190.4 passing yards per game. But unlike the Cowboys, the Saints aren’t about to put up 40 points like the Cowboys did. The Saints are averaging 13.5 points per game over the last four.
The Eagles are better than the Saints offensively, and that’s true with Minshew and whoever plays right tackle in Johnson’s place.
And that’s why Mishew should keep playing.
Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on Twitter @Mfranknfl.