10 Tuesday Morning Readings: The Big Picture

Bulls’ worst recession fear: There won’t be one: There is now justification for going against the Wall Street consensus forecast that 2023 will surely bring a recession. The corollary is that the Federal Reserve will reverse course, begin to ease monetary policy, and fuel a new bull market. The strongest support for this scenario is the yield curve, tracking Treasury returns across maturities. (Barron’s) See also After $18 trillion plunge, global stocks face more hurdles in 2023: Recession and rate hikes risk causing earnings slowdown in 2023 Questions remain about how Big Tech and China will fare. (Bloomberg)

For a decade, Rolex watches outperformed the stock market: Rolexes’ return on investment was greater than that of real estate, the stock market or even gold over a 10-year period from 2011 to 2021, according to Paul Altieri, founder and CEO of Bob’s Watches, a market online for the resale of watches, with a special focus on Rolexes. (Barron’s)

The 2023 Outlook Research Report Dump:Knock out yourselves (F.T. Alphaville) See also Big banks predict recession, Fed pivots in 2023: More than two-thirds of economists at 23 major financial institutions expect the US to experience a recession this year (Wall Street Journal)

US bond yields show the Fed is not behind the curve: Contrary to popular belief, debt investors are increasingly confident in the central bank’s ability to contain inflation. (Bloomberg)

2023 will be the year of the electric SUV: A parade of affordable, charging-friendly electric cars is coming next year, though it’ll still be hard to buy one. (Bloomberg) See also Tesla’s worst year in markets still leaves expensive auto stock: Even after this year’s record 65% drop, the electric carmaker’s meteoric rise through 2020 and 2021 has left it with a stock market value of $389 billion, more than Toyota Motor Corp., General Motors Co., Stellantis NV and Ford Motor. combined co. (Fortune)

How the marijuana ‘green rush’ collapsed: A glut of cannabis in several states has driven down prices for legal marijuana, throwing small businesses into disarray. (Washington Post)

Why Smug Oligarchs Rule Our World. When a filthy wealthy man, accustomed to not only getting what he wants but also being a much-admired icon, finds himself not only losing his aura but becoming the subject of widespread ridicule, of course he lashes out erratically, and in doing so he makes make your problems even worse. (New York Times) See also Get yourself some “No Men” What happens to people who become so powerful, wealthy, and influential that no one is willing to tell them they are wrong? It is a historical problem that has been around for as long as people have achieved great success. (The panorama)

The most dangerous people on the internet in 2022: From SBF to GRU, these were the most disruptive forces in online chaos this year. (cabling)

How Adrian Fontes plans to protect the Arizona election from ‘fascist magicians’ The Democrat who defeated a far-right extremist in the midterms to be the next Secretary of State doesn’t mince words (The Guardian) See also Extremists at the forefront of a siege: Last Word From Jan. 6 Panel The voluminous final report of the Capitol Hill strike committee delved into the unspoken alliance between Trump allies and far-right groups that have turned up to riot.(political)

NASA Stellar 2022: Spectacular images of a historic year in space (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Master of Business interview this weekend with John Mack, former CEO of Morgan Stanley. He was the architect of the firm’s merger with Dewan Witter and later returned as CEO to lead the firm through the financial crisis. He is the author of a new autobiography, “Up Close and All In: Life Lessons from a Wall Street Warrior.”

ETF Industry Market Share (%). Top 5 issuers = 87% market share

Fountain: @nategeraci

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